June unemployment numbers

Today the ABS released the June labour force figures. They make for more bleak reading, following on from other indicators of a softening economy in May.

I don't have time for a long post, but here are some bits and pieces I found interesting.

Female unemployment in Queensland

Female unemployment is booming in Queensland. This, despite a steady participation rate for females.

Male and female unemployment rates, Queensland

While female unemployment is higher than male nation-wide, it hasn't grown at the same pace.

Male and female unemployment rates, Australia

Participation is down

Often rising unemployment is a symptom of increasing participation. The participation rate is the proportion of the (working age) population who are either employed or looking for work (i.e. unemployed). So the more people who enter the labour force, by looking for work, the higher the unemployment rate goes.

The opposite is happening in Australia. People are leaving the labour market (maybe after long, unsuccessful searches for work), and the unemployment rate is still climbing. This is bad news. It also comes on the back of recent news that real wages are falling. This is usually something of a stabiliser for employment, because it means in a soft economy, employers are cutting wages instead of cutting jobs. But it seems to be doing little to stem the slow bleed.

Participation and unemployment rates, Australia

Slow, steady unemployment growth

Finally, we come to the news that unemployment ticked over to six. This is the first time it has reached that number since it was 6.1 per cent in July 2003 - more than ten years ago. And all this with the GFC in between.

Below, I show changes in the unemployment rate in four phases. The most recent phase has been a slow, steady increase in the rate, despite continuing low interest rates. Why? Maybe the government's fiscal stimulus throughout the early years of the global recession was more effective than most economists give credit.

Click on the image to get the full-size version.

Unemployment, Australia, 2003-2014